Late reorders
ChurnRisk learns the normal reorder cycle for each product family and flags when it slips.
Wholesale distribution
Nobody sends a termination notice to their distributor.
Accounts leave a little at a time. One reorder comes late. A product line disappears. ChurnRisk catches the change and tells you which customer is worth a call this week.
The fade
The way distribution actually loses accounts
A buyer does not cancel. They place one order elsewhere to try the other guy's pricing.
Then the reticulated foam stops while the 1.8lb continues, and the total looks close enough that nobody flags it.
Six months later they are a fraction of their old volume and the relationship is already somewhere else.
By the time it shows in a sales report, the decision is old. The signs were there the whole time, spread across the ledger and a sales rep's inbox.
Signals
How an account starts to fade
Each change is measured against that customer's own history.
Missing product lines
A customer still buys two grades but has quietly stopped buying the other two.
Fabrication moving away
Cut-to-size work disappears while commodity sheet keeps total revenue looking steady.
Quotes going nowhere
An account that used to accept 7 in 10 quotes has requested four this year and ordered nothing.
A new buyer
The purchasing agent changed in February, and nobody on your team has spoken to the replacement.
Slower payment
Days to pay are creeping up, along with short-ship claims and credits.
Evidence
A warning you can check
Open the invoice or email behind it.
Ordered every 3 weeks for 14 months. Nothing for 9 weeks. No seasonal pattern at this time of year.
Still buying 1.8lb and 2.2lb. Stopped buying 3.0lb and reticulated entirely in March.
Two unresolved emails about a short shipment. No reply from us in 11 days.
Coverage
"Half our orders come in by phone."
Those orders stay outside the model until ChurnRisk can see them.
During onboarding you tell us which customers order by phone, counter, EDI, or portal, and ChurnRisk lowers its confidence on those accounts instead of guessing.
Those accounts stay unknown instead of being marked healthy.
Monday morning
Call the account with the most at stake
Dollars at risk decide the order.
ChurnRisk drafts a check-in using the real product family and buying cadence. The rep can edit it and open the order history before calling.
It will not chase a purchasing agent for payment or blame a customer for your stockout. A person approves anything that goes out.
Henderson Industrial
Risk tier: RiskRevenue at stake: $184,230Confidence: HighWhat to do: Reorder 34 days past this buyer's own cadence. Two unanswered replies since March 11.
Risk tier: RiskRevenue at stake: $184,230Confidence: HighWhat to do: Reorder 34 days past this buyer's own cadence. Two unanswered replies since March 11.
Northlake Packaging
Risk tier: WatchRevenue at stake: $92,480Confidence: HighWhat to do: Corrugated volume steady. Stretch film moved elsewhere over two quarters.
Risk tier: WatchRevenue at stake: $92,480Confidence: HighWhat to do: Corrugated volume steady. Stretch film moved elsewhere over two quarters.
Rivet and Sons
Risk tier: HealthyRevenue at stake: $61,900Confidence: MediumWhat to do: On cadence and on terms. Nothing to do.
Risk tier: HealthyRevenue at stake: $61,900Confidence: MediumWhat to do: On cadence and on terms. Nothing to do.
Acme Fabrication
Risk tier: UnknownRevenue at stake: $47,110Confidence: Coverage 38 percentWhat to do: No mailbox connected for this account owner. Not enough visibility to assess.
Risk tier: UnknownRevenue at stake: $47,110Confidence: Coverage 38 percentWhat to do: No mailbox connected for this account owner. Not enough visibility to assess.
Put the right accounts on Monday's call list.
Create your workspace now.
For the controller: exactly what we read from your books, and what we never touch, on the QuickBooks page.
Nothing connects until you approve it.
