Reorder gaps against their own cadence.
Not a generic inactivity window. Their rhythm, per product family, learned from their history.
Wholesale distribution
Nobody sends a termination notice to their distributor.
Accounts fade. The reorder gap stretches past their usual cycle, two product families go quiet while the others continue, quotes stop converting. ChurnRisk watches every account against its own history and tells you which ones are worth a call this week.
The fade
The way distribution actually loses accounts
A buyer does not cancel. They place one order elsewhere to try the other guy's pricing. Then the reticulated foam stops while the 1.8lb continues, and the total looks close enough that nobody flags it. Six months later they are a fraction of their old volume and the relationship is already somewhere else.
By the time it shows in a sales report, the decision is old. The signs were there the whole time, spread across the ledger and a sales rep's inbox.
Signals
What ChurnRisk watches on every account
Six patterns, each measured against that account's own history rather than an industry average.
Product families going quiet.
A customer who bought four grades and now buys two, at steady volume on those two, has almost certainly moved the other two somewhere else.
Fabrication moving away.
A shift from cut-to-size work to commodity sheet means the value-added work is going elsewhere, even while revenue looks stable.
Quotes that stop converting.
Four quotes since January, no orders, from an account that used to convert 7 in 10, is a price-shopping pattern worth knowing about this week.
Buyer changes.
The purchasing agent you knew left in February. ChurnRisk notices when the new one has never been in a thread with your team.
Payment drift and rising credits.
Days-to-pay creeping up against their own norm, short ship claims, credits: friction that predicts bigger problems.
Evidence
What a warning looks like
Every warning reads like that: specific, in your language, with the invoices or the thread attached.
Ordered every 3 weeks for 14 months. Nothing for 9 weeks. No seasonal pattern at this time of year.
Still buying 1.8lb and 2.2lb. Stopped buying 3.0lb and reticulated entirely in March.
Two unresolved emails about a short shipment. No reply from us in 11 days.
Warning text as the product renders it, on synthetic accounts.
Coverage
"Half our orders come in by phone."
Then we cannot see them, and we say so.
During onboarding you tell us which customers order by phone, counter, EDI, or portal, and ChurnRisk lowers its confidence on those accounts instead of guessing.
A tool that pretends to see your whole business is worse than no tool, because it teaches your team to trust silence.
Monday morning
What your team gets Monday morning
A list ranked by revenue at stake, not alphabetically.
Drafted check-ins that reference the actual product family and the customer's own cadence, waiting for a rep's edit and approval. Call preparation cards with order history and open issues.
And the guardrails you would want: no payment chasing aimed at a purchasing agent, no check-in sent to an account whose silence is caused by your own stockout, nothing sent at all without a person approving it.
Henderson Industrial
Risk tier: RiskRevenue at stake: $184,230Confidence: HighWhat to do: Reorder 34 days past this buyer's own cadence. Two unanswered replies since March 11.
Risk tier: RiskRevenue at stake: $184,230Confidence: HighWhat to do: Reorder 34 days past this buyer's own cadence. Two unanswered replies since March 11.
Northlake Packaging
Risk tier: WatchRevenue at stake: $92,480Confidence: HighWhat to do: Corrugated volume steady. Stretch film moved elsewhere over two quarters.
Risk tier: WatchRevenue at stake: $92,480Confidence: HighWhat to do: Corrugated volume steady. Stretch film moved elsewhere over two quarters.
Rivet and Sons
Risk tier: HealthyRevenue at stake: $61,900Confidence: MediumWhat to do: On cadence and on terms. Nothing to do.
Risk tier: HealthyRevenue at stake: $61,900Confidence: MediumWhat to do: On cadence and on terms. Nothing to do.
Acme Fabrication
Risk tier: UnknownRevenue at stake: $47,110Confidence: Coverage 38 percentWhat to do: No mailbox connected for this account owner. Not enough visibility to assess.
Risk tier: UnknownRevenue at stake: $47,110Confidence: Coverage 38 percentWhat to do: No mailbox connected for this account owner. Not enough visibility to assess.
Built for the Monday morning revenue review.
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