Seats decline repeatedly
Recurring units fall across several invoices and need to be checked against the client's real headcount.
MSP and IT services
The agreement can renew while the project work goes elsewhere.
Recurring revenue tells you the client is still there. It does not tell you whether seats are shrinking, services are leaving the stack, or the next project went to another partner. ChurnRisk separates those changes.
Useful accounting and email signals, with PSA and ticketing gaps stated on the page.
How the work repeats
The first loss often sits outside monthly recurring revenue
Managed agreements bill by seat or endpoint, then project work and hardware sit beside the recurring line. A client can keep the agreement while sending migrations, security work, or procurement to someone else.
Seat count is the cleanest recurring measure. Project revenue is the early share signal. Ticket history decides whether either change reflects dissatisfaction, which is why this pack carries a strict visibility limit.
Useful changes
Changes an MSP owner should reconcile
The warning separates units, recurring value, projects, and open service issues.
Project revenue reaches zero
The managed agreement continues while work that used to arrive regularly disappears.
Services leave the stack
One managed service drops from the agreement while the rest of the monthly line remains.
Renewal language changes
Questions about exit clauses, co-management, response time, or another vCIO appear in connected threads.
Warning examples
A warning should separate contraction from service trouble
These illustrative lines stop where the current connectors stop.
Seat count fell across five monthly invoices. The connected records do not explain whether the client's headcount changed.
The managed agreement continues. Project revenue has been zero since February after recurring project work in the prior year.
A client asked about an exit clause while an escalation remained open. Ticket details are outside ChurnRisk and need review.
Illustrative warning copy. Figures and events are sample data from the industry pack.
False alarms
A smaller invoice may be exactly right
The service desk and client context have to explain the accounting change.
The client cut headcount
Fewer employees can justify fewer seats without saying anything about the relationship.
A migration finished
A planned cloud move may reduce managed endpoints or end a project revenue line.
The project was supposed to end
Completed project work should not become a permanent recurring baseline.
The business is seasonal
Some clients add and remove units with a predictable operating season.
ChurnRisk does not prepare an automated check-in during an active outage or severity-one incident. It keeps unresolved security issues out of renewal messages.
Connector limits
The PSA owns the most important service evidence
MSP pages stay at low confidence until PSA and ticket data is connected.
What ChurnRisk can read today
QuickBooks can show monthly recurring value, unit lines, project revenue, hardware purchases, and payment drift. Chosen mailboxes can show owner escalations, contract questions, and contact changes.
What remains outside the record
ChurnRisk does not connect to ConnectWise, Autotask, HaloPSA, remote monitoring consoles, or shared client chat today. It cannot judge service satisfaction from the inbox alone.
Missing PSA and ticketing data caps confidence at 40%. Remote monitoring data caps it at 45%, and client chat outside email caps it at 55%. No clean recurring invoice can lift the warning past those ceilings.
Read the current connection boundaries for QuickBooks and Gmail or Outlook. The How It Works page explains how missing data becomes an unknown instead of a healthy reading.
Monday workflow
Open the ticket history before calling the client
The accounting change starts the review, and the service record decides what happens next.
Reconcile the units
Compare seats or endpoints across invoices and check whether the client's headcount truly changed.
Split recurring and project work
See whether the agreement is stable while projects, hardware, or one managed service moved away.
Read the PSA
Check active incidents, ticket escalations, response times, and the client's own service history outside ChurnRisk.
Choose recovery or review
Prepare an escalation call, unit inquiry, or quarterly business review. A person approves and places the contact.
See the full product workflow, including evidence, confidence, and approval before any customer contact.
Related industries
Other agreements with system-level blind spots
Equipment maintenance
For contracts where the field-service system holds the service record.
Agencies
For retained clients whose project activity can move away first.
Compare plans on Pricing, or use the demo to test one account with labeled sample data.
Find the clients whose MRR hides the first loss.
Start with the recurring and project lines you can see, then keep the PSA check beside every decision.
There is no PSA connector today. ChurnRisk caps confidence at 40% when ticketing data is missing.
